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With thousands of ballots yet to count, early returns mostly favored incumbents throughout Stanislaus County – with notable exceptions.

Modesto City Councilmen Jeremiah Williams and Eric Alvarez seem likely to hold onto their seats, according to incomplete early returns, as could Turlock Mayor Amy Bublak, two Modesto City Schools trustees and two Modesto Irrigation District directors.

But scandals recently rocking the mayors of Hughson and Patterson were too much for George Carr and Michael Clauzel, respectively, to overcome, as both appeared headed to defeat in their reelection bids.

And Modesto Irrigation District Director Janice Keating could lose her seat, if early returns hold as of 8:08 a.m. Wednesday.

(L-R) U.S. Congressional District 13 Incumbent Rep. Adam Gray (D) and challenger Kevin Lincoln (R). Credit: The Modesto Focus

Tuesday’s national Democratic surge may benefit Rep. Adam Gray who likely will beat Kevin Lincoln in California’s 13th Congressional District.

According to incomplete returns, Gray was leading with 61% to 39% for Lincoln, a Donald Trump-backed former Stockton mayor.

But other local state- and federal-level Republicans were ahead of their Democratic opponents.

(L-R) State Senate District 4 candidates Jaron Brandon (D) and Alexandra Duarte (R). Credit: The Modesto Focus

A fierce battle to represent Stanislaus County in the California Senate District 4 seemed to tilt toward Republican Alexandra Duarte who captured 52% to Democrat Jaron Brandon’s 48% in early returns.

In the red-leaning 9th California Assembly District, Heath Flora (57%) was beating Democratic challenger Matthew Adams (43%) despite a year of unfavorable headlines for the incumbent.

And the entrenched incumbent GOP Rep. Tom McClintock (56%) was fending off an energetic challenge from Riverbank Democrat Michael Masuda (44%) in the House’s 5th California District.

(L-R) U.S. Congressional District 5 incumbent Rep. Tom McClintock (R) and challenger Michael Masuda (D). Credit: The Modesto Focus

A pair of unrelated Modesto school bonds showed mixed results. Both need 55% to pass, and Modesto City Schools high school district’s Measure K was ahead with more than 58.5% – but northeast Modesto’s Sylvan Union School District’s Measure N was slightly behind with 54.8%.

Here are early-return results in other notable races:

Modesto City Council

(L-R) Modesto City Council District 2 incumbent Eric Alvarez and challenger Juan Telles and District 5 incumbent Jeremiah Williams and challenger Jared Sylvia. Credit: Andrew Kuhn / The Modesto Focus

Williams and Alvarez appeared likely to win reelection. Williams was ahead of challenger Jared Sylvia in District 5, 68% to 32%, and with 53% in District 2, Alvarez was leading challenger Juan Telles, who had 38% in early returns. Nick Bavaro ran unopposed in District 4 and was reelected. 

Modesto Irrigation District

Candidates for the Modesto Irrigation District Board of Directors. (Clockwise from top left): Division 2 incumbent Janice Keating and challengers Mike Moradian and John Van Oostende; Division 4 challenger Brad Johnson and incumbent John Boer; and Division 3 challenger Dominic Giorgi and incumbent Robert Frobose. Credit: The Modesto Focus

Incumbent MID Director Keating was behind in her reelection bid with 28.5% in a three-way race for the MID board. Early returns favored Mike Moradian to win with 44%, and John Van Oostende was trailing with 28%.

Board Chairman Robert Frobose (63%) easily survived a hard-fought battle with Dominic Giorgi (37%) in Division 3 covering northeast Modesto and part of Riverbank.

Incumbent John Boer (69%) was heading to an easy victory over challenger Brad Johnson (31%) to represent Salida and northwest Modesto in Division 4.

Turlock Mayor

(L-R) Turlock Mayor Amy Bublak and challengers Jim Reape and Kelley Coelho. Credit: Andrew Kuhn / The Modesto Focus

A compelling race for Turlock mayor is close, with incumbent Amy Bublak (48%) ahead in a contest with planning commissioner Jim Reape (42.6%), and Kelley Coelho trailing (9%).

Modesto City Schools

Candidates for the Modesto City Schools Board of Education (from top left, clockwise): Area 1 incumbent Cindy Marks and challenger Nefi Lopez; Area 5 candidates Debra Brady and Michelle Tomlinson; and Area 7 challenger Fabiola Garcia and incumbent Adolfo Lopez. Credit: The Modesto Focus

An Area 5 open race to succeed outgoing Jolene Daly was too close to call, with Michelle Tomlinson (53%) edging Debra Brady (47%) in incomplete returns.

Cindy Marks, among the longest serving office holders in California, leads with 55% to challenger Nefi Lopez’s 45% in Trustee Area 1.

Incumbent Adolfo Lopez (54%) looks to beat challenger Fabiola Garcia (46%) in Area 7.

Stephanie Poulsen was unopposed in Area 3 and will succeed outgoing Chad Brown.

Riverbank’s Measure M

A sign supporting Measure M on the Nov. 3 ballot in Riverbank. Credit: Garth Stapley / The Modesto Focus

The effort to give city voters power over annexations was cruising to a landslide with nearly 61%. 

It’s not clear how that anti-establishment triumph might affect the 1,500-acre River Walk project. It was approved only 42 days before by a Riverbank City Council 3-2 vote and is subject to a current referendum effort that could lead to another citywide vote.

Hughson Mayor

(L-R) Hughson incumbent Mayor George Carr and challenger Geoff Powers. Photo of fellow challenger Sam Rush not available. Credit: The Modesto Focus

Carr was censured twice this year for lewd behavior toward employees. With less than 27%, Carr trailed apparent victor Geoff Powers (44%), and Sam Rush captured 29%.

Patterson Mayor

(L-R) Patterson incumbent Mayor Michael Clauzel and challenger Gabriela Hernandez. Credit: The Modesto Focus

With about 40%, Clauzel – also recently disciplined by his council with a less-severe official reprimand for bullying behavior – was being trounced by Councilwoman Gabriela Hernandez (60%) in early returns in the race for mayor.

Oakdale City Council

Fred Smith (27%) led a crowded race, but only two candidates will be elected and the next two finishers, Chris Chavez and incumbent Kayleigh Gilbert, sit at 23% and 21% respectively in early returns.

Also trailing were Mary Buchanan (12%), Sal Hernandez (9%) and Benjamin Amaral (8%).

If the self-described conservative slate of Smith and Chavez are elected, they could form an alliance with Councilman Jarod Pitassi. He may face discipline from the council when an abuse-of-power investigation wraps up in a few weeks.

Sales tax increases

Both 1-cent sale tax bumps – Measure P in Ceres (58%) and Measure L in Patterson (64%) – needed a bare majority and appeared on their way to winning.

Other election results

Measure O – Future Waterford City Council elections will be conducted by geographic district instead of at large with the passage of this initiative (60%).

Counties must report results by Dec. 4 and then the state has until Dec. 11 to certify the final election results.

Garth Stapley is the accountability reporter for The Modesto Focus, a project of the nonprofit Central Valley Journalism Collaborative. Contact him at garth@themodestofocus.org.

Garth Stapley is the accountability reporter for The Modesto Focus.