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A new incomplete ballot count shows the Sylvan school bond in northeast Modesto barely winning, a reversal of fortune from last week’s tally when Measure N was losing by a small margin.

But with more than 35,000 votes throughout Stanislaus County yet to count, whether the Sylvan Union School District bond ultimately will succeed is anybody’s guess.

Also too close to call are individual city council races in Turlock and in Oakdale.

The gap between Turlock candidates Ryan Taylor and incumbent Cassandra Abram widened a bit – from Taylor only 28 votes ahead last week to 82 votes as of Monday evening. But the outcome remains uncertain.

Ditto for Oakdale’s Chris Chavez, who now is 241 votes ahead of incumbent Kayleigh Gilbert instead of just 74. 

No leads changed from Thursday, Nov. 5 to Monday, Nov. 9, in all other high-profile races throughout Stanislaus County. Modesto Irrigation District incumbent Janice Keating did slip from second to third place in her three-way race, however.

Here are the latest counts, with a look at differences from early results last week.

U.S. House

5th District

(L-R) U.S. Congressional District 5 incumbent Rep. Tom McClintock (R) and challenger Michael Masuda (D). Credit: The Modesto Focus

Tom McClintock (incumbent, Republican) 56.4%, up from 55% last week

Michael Masuda (Democrat) 43.6%

[Race has been called for McClintock]

13th District

(L-R) U.S. Congressional District 13 Incumbent Rep. Adam Gray (D) and challenger Kevin Lincoln (R). Credit: The Modesto Focus

Adam Gray (incumbent, Democrat) 62.2%, up from 61% last week

Kevin Lincoln (Republican) 37.8%

[Race has been called for Gray]

California Legislature

4th Senate District

(L-R) State Senate District 4 candidates Jaron Brandon (D) and Alexandra Duarte (R). Credit: The Modesto Focus

Alexandra Duarte (Republican) 53.1%, up from 52% last week 

Jaron Brandon (Democrat) 46.9%

9th Assembly District

(L-R) State Assembly District 9 incumbent Heath Flora (R) and challenger Matthew Adams (D). Credit: The Modesto Focus

Heath Flora (incumbent, Republican) 56.1%, up from 56% last week

Matthew Adams (Democrat) 43.9%

Modesto City Council

(L-R) Modesto City Council District 2 incumbent Eric Alvarez and challenger Juan Telles and District 5 incumbent Jeremiah Williams and challenger Jared Sylvia. Credit: Andrew Kuhn / The Modesto Focus

District 2 (elect 1)

Eric Alvarez (incumbent) 51.3%, down from 53% last week

Juan Telles 40.4, up from 37.7% last week

Jon Rodriguez 8.3%, down from 9.3% last week

District 5

Jeremiah Williams (incumbent) 67.4%, down from 68.1% last week

Jared Sylvia 32.6%

Turlock Mayor

(L-R) Turlock Mayor Amy Bublak and challengers Jim Reape and Kelley Coelho. Credit: Andrew Kuhn / The Modesto Focus

Amy Bublak (incumbent), unchanged from 47.8% last week

Jim Reape 43%, down from 43.1% last week

Kelley Coelho, unchanged from 9.1% last week

Patterson Mayor

(L-R) Patterson incumbent Mayor Michael Clauzel and challenger Gabriela Hernandez. Credit: The Modesto Focus

Gabriela Hernandez 58.9%, up from 59.7% last week

Michael Clauzel (incumbent) 40.7%, down from 41.2% last week

Hughson Mayor

(L-R) Hughson incumbent Mayor George Carr and challenger Geoff Powers. Photo of fellow challenger Sam Rush not available. Credit: The Modesto Focus

Geoff Powers, unchanged from 45% last week

Sam Rush, unchanged from 28.9% last week

George Carr (incumbent), unchanged from 26% last week

Oakdale City Council (elect two)

(L-R): Oakdale City Council candidates Fred Smith, Chris Chavez and incumbent Kayleigh Gilbert. The top two will be elected. Credit: The Modesto Focus

Fred Smith 27.9%, up from 27.3% last week

Chris Chavez 23.3%, down from 25.2% last week

Kayleigh Gilbert (incumbent) 20.9%, down from 21.6% last week

Mary Buchanan 11.4%, down from 11.7% last week

Sal Hernandez 9.2%, down from 9.3% last week

Benjamin Amaral 7.3, down from 7.6% last week

Modesto Irrigation District

Candidates for the Modesto Irrigation District Board of Directors. (Clockwise from top left): Division 2 incumbent Janice Keating and challengers Mike Moradian and John Van Oostende; Division 4 challenger Brad Johnson and incumbent John Boer; and Division 3 challenger Dominic Giorgi and incumbent Robert Frobose. Credit: The Modesto Focus

Division 2 (elect 1)

Mike Moradian 45.6%, up from 44.4% last week

John Van Oostende 27.5%, down from 27.7% last week

Janice Keating (incumbent) 26.9%, down from 27.9% last week

Division 3

Robert Frobose (incumbent) 63.3%, up from 63.2% last week

Dominic Giorgi 36.7%

Division 4

John Boer (incumbent) 68.4%, down from 68.8% last week

Brad Johnson 31.6%

Modesto City Schools

Candidates for the Modesto City Schools Board of Education (from top left, clockwise): Area 1 incumbent Cindy Marks and challenger Nefi Lopez; Area 5 candidates Debra Brady and Michelle Tomlinson; and Area 7 challenger Fabiola Garcia and incumbent Adolfo Lopez. Credit: The Modesto Focus

Area 1

Cindy Marks (incumbent) 53.3%, down from 54.6% last week

Nefi Lopez 46.8%   

Area 5

Michelle Tomlinson 52.5%, down from 53.1% last week

Debra Brady 47.5%

Area 7

Adolfo Lopez (incumbent) 57.2%, up from 55.2% last week

Fabiola Garcia 42.8%

Local Measures

A sign supporting Measure M on the Nov. 3 ballot in Riverbank. Credit: Garth Stapley / The Modesto Focus

Measure K (Modesto high schools bond – need 55%)

Yes 59.4%, up from 58.5% last week

No 40.7%

Measure N (Sylvan school bond – need 55%)

Yes 55.4%, up from 54.8% last week

No 44.6%

Measure M (Riverbank growth)

Yes 59.6%, down from 60.1% last week

No 40.4%

Measure P (Ceres sales tax)

Yes 57.5%, down from 57.7% last week

No 42.5%

Measure L (Patterson sales tax)

Yes 63.6%, down from 64.5% last week

No 36.4%

Measure O (Waterford district elections)

No 59%, unchanged from last week 

Yes 41%

It’s not clear how Waterford will resolve a lawsuit threat from proponents of district elections challenging the current at-large structure, now that city voters have soundly rejected Measure O.

Check back after Thursday for another update.

Counties must report results by Dec. 4 and then California has until Dec. 11 to certify election results.

Garth Stapley is the accountability reporter for The Modesto Focus, a project of the nonprofit Central Valley Journalism Collaborative. Contact him at garth@themodestofocus.org.

Garth Stapley is the accountability reporter for The Modesto Focus.