Hey Focus fans!
Are you sick yet of hearing and reading and watching about politics? The elections are over. Why can’t we just leave it be for awhile?
BECAUSE … they aren’t over! A few races are too close to call, locally and elsewhere, and as of the latest results update Monday, 35,000 Stanislaus County votes are yet to be processed. Also because there remain a few as-yet-unsaid tidbits to examine.
So hang in with me just a little longer. I’ll try to make this quick. Or at least readable.
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Let’s start with local voter turnout, a decent means of measuring how engaged people were with last week’s midterm elections. Although we don’t have final counts, we do know that about 160,000 Stanislaus voters cast ballots, representing 53% turnout.
And that’s not bad, compared to four years ago when Stanislaus turnout was 46.8%. It means people are paying attention.
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Another change from four years ago, also a gubernatorial election: more Stanislaus voters at that time preferred Republican candidates for statewide offices across the board (governor, attorney general and the rest). But this year, we favored Democratic candidates – again, across the board – for the exact same statewide offices.
That’s largely a function of the national blue wave washing over Stanislaus County. Because I’ve tipped my hat to area Republicans in past newsletters, it’s fair to do the same to local Dems this time.
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Do we see other results of the blue wave here?
Maybe. While Republican state Senator-elect Alexandra Duarte is beating Democrat Jaron Brandon with nearly 53% so far across the huge, 13-county Senate District 4, voters prefer him by nearly 53% here in her own county, Stanislaus (he’s from Tuolumne County).
So local Dems tried hard to stand by their man, but could not overcome decidedly red DNA in the rest of the district and its many mountain counties to the east.
One final point – U.S. Rep. Tom McClintock also was less popular here in Stanislaus County by nearly four percentage points than elsewhere in his 5th California District. It sprawls across 11 other mostly conservative counties, and became even redder by design with redistricting in last year’s Proposition 50.
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I previously noted how some politicians pay a price for bad behavior. Specifically, three local office holders disciplined by the people they serve with all are coming in last in their respective races. They are Patterson Mayor Michael Clauzel, Hughson Mayor George Carr and Modesto Irrigation District Director Janice Keating.
Why did the state’s 9th Assembly District reelect Heath Flora, with the extra-heavy baggage he’s carrying (two ongoing state ethics investigations, marital infidelity, reluctance to pay child support, loss of local party support)?
The 9th District remains solid red, and conservative voters in these parts have proven themselves fiercely loyal time after time. It’s interesting to note, however, that this year (Flora is winning 56.4% of the vote) looks to be his closest race since he was first elected way back in 2016, when he got almost 55%. He got as much as 74% in other years.
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Turning from partisan politics, here are just a couple notes of interest from small districts that haven’t made it into other reports.
- A week ago, Kevin Oliver was leading Gina Smith by only 13 votes in a race for the Empire Union School District board east of Modesto. But after Monday’s update, Smith is now ahead by 15 votes.
- In the Shiloh School District west of Modesto, George Avila is ahead of Becki Scharffer by only eight votes for the second of two seats. That qualifies as a cliffhanger, too.
This, folks, is why it’s never over till it’s over.
Check in with us Friday to see the latest as elections officials continue their counting.
Feel free to share notes, tips and insights for Stanislaus-centric campaign coverage at garth@themodestofocus.org.